Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff.     

Frequency of multiple paternity varies between two populations of brown smoothhound shark,Mustelus henlei

Multiple paternity was recently observed in a population of the brown smoothhound shark, Mustelus henlei, from Las Barrancas, Baja California Sur, Mexico, with litters demonstrating the greatest percentage of multiple paternity for any shark species (93 % of litters and an average number of sires = 2.3). To determine whether this frequency is consistent elsewhere in the species’ range, 4 polymorphic microsatellite loci were used to determine the frequency of multiple paternity in 18 litters of M. henlei from Santa Catalina Island, CA, sampled in 2004, 2008, and 2012. Multiple paternity varied among sampling years with 2004 demonstrating multiple sires for 40 % of sampled litters (n = 10) with an average of 1.4 sires per litter and 2008/2012 demonstrating a total lack of multiply sired litters (n = 8). Although multiple paternity was detected in this study, the range of frequencies observed is lower than that observed in the Mexican population. Based on these findings, investigators should take location into consideration when assessing the existence of multiple paternity in future studies of elasmobranch species.     

Theoretical versus observed gas-particle partitioning of carbonyl emissions from motor vehicles

A state-of-the-science thermodynamic model describing gas-particle absorption processes was used to predict the gas-particle partitioning of mixtures of approximately 60 carbonyl compounds emitted from low-emission gasoline-powered vehicles, three-way catalyst gasoline-powered vehicles, heavy-duty diesel vehicles under the idle-creep condition (HDDV idle), and heavy-duty diesel vehicles under the five-mode test (HDDV 5-mode). Exhaust was diluted by a factor of 120-580 with a residence time of approximately 43 sec. The predicted equilibrium absorption partitioning coefficients differed from the measured partitioning coefficients by several orders of magnitude. Time scales to reach equilibrium in the dilution sampling system were close to the actual residence time during the HDDV 5-mode test and much longer than the actual residence time during the other vehicle tests. It appears that insufficient residence time in the sampling system cannot uniformly explain the failure of the absorption mechanism to explain the measured partitioning. Other gas-particle partitioning mechanisms (e.g., heterogeneous reactions, capillary adsorption) beyond the simple absorption theory are needed to explain the discrepancy between calculated carbonyl partitioning coefficients and observed partitioning. Both of these alternative partitioning mechanisms imply great challenges for the measurement and modeling of semi-volatile primary organic aerosol (POA) species from motor vehicles. Furthermore, as emitted particle concentrations from newer vehicles approach atmospheric background levels, dilution sampling systems must fundamentally change their approach so that they use realistic particle concentrations in the dilution air to approximately represent real-world conditions. Samples collected with particle-free dilution air yielding total particulate matter concentrations below typical ambient concentrations will not provide a realistic picture of partitioning for semi-volatile compounds.     

Soil nitrogen transformations under elevated atmospheric CO₂ and O₃ during the soybean growing season

We investigated the influence of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on soil N cycling within the soybean growing season and across soil environments (i.e., rhizosphere and bulk soil) at the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Elevated O₃ decreased soil mineral N likely through a reduction in plant material input and increased denitrification, which was evidenced by the greater abundance of the denitrifier gene nosZ. Elevated CO₂ did not alter the parameters evaluated and both elevated CO₂ and O₃ showed no interactive effects on nitrifier and denitrifier abundance, nor on total and mineral N concentrations. These results indicate that elevated CO₂ may have limited effects on N transformations in soybean agroecosystems. However, elevated O₃ can lead to a decrease in soil N availability in both bulk and rhizosphere soils, and this likely also affects ecosystem productivity by reducing the mineralization rates of plant-derived residues.     

Use of whole-body and subcellular Cu residues of Lumbriculus variegatus to predict waterborne Cu toxicity to both L. variegatus and Chironomus riparius in fresh water

We tested the use of whole-body and subcellular Cu residues (biologically-active (BAM) and inactive compartments (BIM)), of the oligochaete Lumbriculus variegatus to predict Cu toxicity in fresh water. The critical whole-body residue associated with 50% mortality (CBR₅₀) was constant (38.2-55.6 μg g⁻¹ fresh wt.) across water hardness (38-117 mg L⁻¹ as CaCO₃) and exposure times during the chronic exposure. The critical subcellular residue (CSR₅₀) in metal-rich granules (part of BIM) associated with 50% mortality was approximately 5 μg g⁻¹ fresh wt., indicating that Cu bioavailability is correlated with toxicity:subcellular residue is a better predictor of Cu toxicity than whole-body residue. There was a strong correlation between the whole-body residue of L. variegatus (biomonitor) and survival of Chironomus riparius (relatively sensitive species) in a hard water Cu co-exposure. The CBR₅₀ in L. variegatus for predicting mortality of C. riparius was 29.1-45.7 μg g⁻¹ fresh wt., which was consistent within the experimental period; therefore use of Cu residue in an accumulator species to predict bioavailability of Cu to a sensitive species is a promising approach.     

Contaminants in the coastal karst aquifer system along the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Intensive land development as a result of the rapidly growing tourism industry in the “Riviera Maya” region of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico may result in contamination of groundwater resources that eventually discharge into Caribbean coastal ecosystems. We deployed two types of passive sampling devices into groundwater flowing through cave systems below two communities to evaluate concentrations of contaminants and to indicate the possible sources. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products accumulated in the samplers could only have originated from domestic sewage. PAHs indicated contamination by runoff from highways and other impermeable surfaces and chlorophenoxy herbicides accumulated in samplers deployed near a golf course indicated that pesticide applications to turf are a source of contamination. Prevention and mitigation measures are needed to ensure that expanding development does not impact the marine environment and human health, thus damaging the tourism-based economy of the region.     

Spatial variability of carbonaceous aerosols and associated source tracers in two cites in the Midwestern United States

Semi-continuous and 24-h averaged measurements of fine carbonaceous aerosols were made concurrently at three sites within each of two U.S. Midwestern Cities; Detroit, Michigan and Cleveland, Ohio; during two, one-month intensive campaigns conducted in July of 2007 and January & February of 2008. A comparison of 24-h measurements revealed substantial intra-urban variability in carbonaceous aerosols consistent with the influence of local sources, and excesses in both PM_2.5 organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were identified at individual sites within each city. High time-resolved black carbon (BC) measurements indicated that elemental carbon concentrations were higher at sites adjacent to freeways and busy surface streets, and temporal patterns suggested that excess EC at sites adjacent to freeways was dominated by mobile source emissions while excesses in EC away from traffic corridors was dominated by point/area source emissions. The site-to-site variability in OC concentrations was approximately 7% within the neighborhood scale (0.5–4 km) and between 4 and 27% at the urban scale (4–100 km). In contrast, measurements of organic source tracers, in conjunction with a Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) source-apportionment model, indicated that the spatial variation in the contribution of both mobile and stationary sources to PM_2.5 OC often exceeded the variation in OC mass concentration by a factor of 3 or more. Markers for mobile sources, biomass smoke, natural gas, and coal combustion differed by as much as 60% within the neighborhood scale and by greater than 200% within the urban scale. The observations made during this study suggest that the urban excess of carbonaceous aerosols is much more complex than has been previously reported and that a more rigorous, source-oriented approach should be taken in order to assess the risk associated with exposure to carbonaceous aerosols within the industrialized environments of the Midwestern United States.     

Carbonaceous aerosol over a Pinus taeda forest in Central North Carolina,USA

Organic aerosol is the least understood component of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). In this study, organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC) within ambient PM_2.5 over a three-year period at a forested site in the North Carolina Piedmont are presented. EC exhibited significant weekday/weekend effects and less significant seasonal effects, in contrast to OC, which showed strong seasonal differences and smaller weekend/weekday effects. Summer OC concentrations are about twice as high as winter concentrations, while EC was somewhat higher in the winter. OC was highly correlated with EC during cool periods when both were controlled by primary combustion sources. This correlation decreased with increasing temperature, reflecting higher contributions from secondary organic aerosol, likely of biogenic origin. PM_2.5 radiocarbon data from the site confirms that a large fraction of the carbon in PM_2.5 is indeed of biogenic origin, since modern (non-fossil fuel derived) carbon accounted for 80% of the PM_2.5 carbon over the course of a year. OC and EC exhibited distinct diurnal profiles, with summertime OC peaking in late evening and declining until midday. During winter, OC peaked during the early morning hours and again declined until midday. Summertime EC peaked during late morning hours except on weekends. Wintertime EC often peaked in late PM or early AM hours due to local residential wood combustion emissions. The highest short term peaks in OC and EC were associated with wildfire events. These data corroborate recent source apportionment studies conducted within 20 km of our site, where oxidation products of isoprene, α-pinene, and β-caryophyllene were identified as important precursors to organic aerosols. A large fraction of the carbon in rural southeastern ambient PM_2.5 appears to be of biogenic origin, which is probably difficult to reduce by anthropogenic controls.